A study suggests that existing critical care capacity in the United States may be insufficient to meet the demand created by COVID-19. Community transmission of COVID-19 in the United States is expected to dramatically increase demand for critical care facilities. Using a model of COVID-19 transmission that incorporates US population demographics, Alison Galvani, Burton Singer, and colleagues projected future COVID-19-associated demand for intensive care unit (ICU) beds in the United States. Assuming a basic reproduction number R0 of 2.5, the authors projected that in the absence of self-isolation, treating all critically ill cases at the height of the outbreak would require nearly 300,000 ICU beds, or three times the number of existing ICU beds in the country. For a lower R0 of 2, approximately 150,000 ICU beds would be required in the absence of self-isolation—1.5 times the existing number of ICU beds. Self-isolation of 20% of cases within 24 hours of symptom onset would reduce peak weekly demand for ICU beds by nearly 50% for an R0 of 2.5 and by nearly 75% for an R0 of 2, although demand would still exceed existing capacity in the former scenario. The results suggest that COVID-19 will likely overwhelm the country’s existing critical care capacity and that policies to expand ICU capacity and encourage self-isolation are urgently needed, according to the authors.
Article #20-04064: “Projecting hospital utilization during the COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States,” by Seyed M. Moghadas et al.
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